Planning for a Pandemic

Photo by Cheng Feng from Unsplash

In a matter of a week our lives have turned completely upside down. Parents are working from home as offices are closed. Students are home-schooled as schools were mandated to close. Small businesses deemed non-essential are forced to close by state governments. Bars, lounges and clubs are indefinitely banned and while most restaurants are closed, some are only open to delivery orders. By mid-March, the U.S unemployment rate has skyrocketed, with nearly 3.5 million Americans without jobs. Governments all over the world have closed borders. Most cities throughout the world conducted a deep cleaning campaign, disinfecting public places and transit systems, while media campaigns promote #socialdistance #stayathome and #washyourhands. What appears to be a storyline from the movie Contagion, or Hulu’s A Handmaid’s Tale, AMC’s the Walking Dead, or even the Resident Evil trilogy, has become a stark reality for billions of people on the planet experiencing a lock-down amid a pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus.

COVID-19, also known as coronavirus, originated from a wet-market in Wuhan, China. The virus is one of many that were caused by animal to human contamination, due to unsanitary practices. Scientists claim the virus is a highly contagious and deadly “novel” or new corona-virus strand with an average lethality of 3.5%. Some countries, like Spain and Italy, are experiencing a more severe fatality rate of 4%. Meanwhile, the average flu kills on average 0.1% of the people it infects. Lead virologists, epidemiologists and immunologists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, who served as the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) and contributed to a wide range of research on the HIV/AIDS epidemic, helped develop a set of national guidelines that would help mitigate the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. According to experts, the virus spreads through contaminated cough and sneeze water droplets. Symptoms vary from mild to severe “flu-like” symptoms, and may include chest pains, fever and pneumonia. It is determined that people with compromised immune systems have a far greater fatality rate. Some coronavirus test-positive victims also experienced loss of smell and taste while others show gastro-intestinal symptoms.

Although there are viruses with greater fatality rates, this virus appears to be infecting those who can afford to travel, initially causing infection rate disparities among socio-economic groups. According to a report, Dr, Kinda, who specializes in humanitarian missions and emergency response in Africa, notes “since the virus affects mostly people who travel by air, it is not the poorest people, but people who have access to information and know how to report symptoms. It would have taken longer to respond to a disease that appeared in a very poor or inaccessible area.” Community spread cases are caused when a person who recently traveled by air and infect someone in their community who has not recently traveled, accelerating the rate of infection.

Planning Prospective: What we are Learning from COVID-19?

As we are facing an unprecedented pandemic in our lifetime, we are already learning a lot from other countries’ experiences. For one, a national plan of action is absolutely critical. Countries with strong centralized leadership to make life-altering decisions and allocate resources are proving themselves worthy of the challenge.

Regions all over the world are experiencing massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions due to national government mandated stay-at-home and lock-down orders as traffic congestion is massively reduced.

We are learning how policy, economics and planning either influences or is influenced by social behavior in real-time. Ride-hailing services such as Lyft was forced to change their prime business model of passenger ride-share to food delivery. Meanwhile grocery delivery start ups and Amazon are looking to hire tens of thousands of workers as people turn to e-commerce for delivery services.

Prior to Governor Cuomo’s total work-from-home quarantine mandate, bike-share giant, Citibike, seen a surge in trips to more than half a million users in a week, with 517,800 trips between March 1 and March 11, 2020, compared to 310,100 trips during the same period one year earlier. At this time, fear of the virus dictated travel patterns where we’ve seen commuters avoid New York’s subway system, as they were afraid to contract the virus.

“For example, Rwanda installed public hand-washing sinks (before the country’s first confirmed case), created education programs on how to effectively wash your hands, and implemented car-free streets to promote pedestrian social distancing.”

Wildlife in Vienna, Italy are returning as the city’s canals are void of pollution. But at the same time, medical supplies are low and medical professionals are out-supplied. Many nations in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Caribbean are scrambling to haphazardly contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile some nations such as Rwanda and South Korea have taken preventative measures to fight the virus. For example, Rwanda installed public hand-washing sinks (before the country’s first confirmed case), created education programs on how to effectively wash your hands, and implemented car-free streets to promote pedestrian social distancing.

Educational Program in Kigali, Rwanda to Teach Pedestrians How to Effectively Wash Their Hands

Disaster Planning should Include Pandemics

The future of planning is constantly shaped by the problems we currently face. Although there are many historical references to support this claim, Superstorm Sandy is the most recent and relevant example. After Superstorm Sandy devastated the New York/New Jersey metropolitan area, subsequent hurricanes affected various cities throughout the United States and its overseas territories. This forced a reactionary wave of planning curricula, urban policies, plans and guidelines to shift its attention towards resiliency planning and planning for the next Superstorm Sandy. Planners in the workforce, as public officials and private consultants, helped create a wide range of policies to reduce the effect of climate change or mitigate natural disasters on cities and its inhabitants. Natural disasters from hurricanes can cost a local economy billions of dollars, while experts expect a global pandemic of this nature can lead the world into a global depression - surpassing the unemployment rates of the 2008 recession caused by the subprime loan housing crisis. The United States Congressional chambers just passed an unprecedented $2 trillion relief package, in which Majority Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi mentioned is the first of a few to combat a looming recession catalyzed by COVID-19.

Planning for a Pandemic

The future of planning post COVID-19 may be quite interesting. Planning professionals and public health experts need to collaborate more often than before.This pandemic should push planning professionals to develop educational workshops led by public health experts and economists to inform the rest of us how to effectively plan for a pandemic. The aftermath of COVID-19 should compel accredited schools to introduce a range of academic curricula on a broad range of topics from preventive and mitigation measures under the umbrella of “planning for a pandemic”. Under this new planning topic, GIS specialists should help gather information on community resources that are useful tools to combat the pandemic. For example, large convention centers in New York and New Orleans are currently being used as makeshift hospitals as existing hospitals are currently overwhelmed.

Mapping Technology Can Determine Community Resources to help Combat the Virus and Locate Community Spread Cases.

During this pandemic, much of our workforce is at home. Therefore, a plan for non-essential workers to work-from-home should be developed so planning departments can effectively operate business-as-usual while practicing social distance. This would often be a part of an agency’s strategic plan. The strategic plan should also list what policy changes are necessary for local governments to permit virtual public meetings and other “business-as-usual” meetings such as planning boards and zoning boards.

Working from home should urge transit planners to develop plans that would effectively reduce transit service without compromising social distancing rules. Planners and economists should conduct research and influence policy to mitigate economic impacts on local transit service caused by reduced ridership and revenue. Planners should also look at ways micro-mobility may fill those transit service gaps.

In addition, regional coordination is key. For the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut tri-state region, this meant constant communication among the governors to implement effective state-wide quarantine orders or lock-downs. Plans for vulnerable populations such as people experiencing homelessness and people who are incarcerated should be in place to help curve the spread of the virus within these population groups.

History has shown that pandemics do not occur as frequently as natural disasters, but their fatality rates can have devastating impacts. After the SARS epidemic, scientists have warned that pandemics are not an “if it will happen” event, but a “when will it happen” event. As this article was written in the midst of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) global pandemic, we are still learning which practices can help stop the spread as we attempt to live ordinary lives. I will continue to document and report best planning practices and case studies throughout the duration of the pandemic. It is the least I can do as I keep a safe distance and celebrate the hard work our health professionals, store clerks, law enforcement officers, and other essential workers are doing in the front lines.

The Gentrification Debate Around Samuel Stein's Capital City

Samuel Stein's book "Capital City" has been the topic of debate surrounding gentrification. Back in April, 2019, Josh Stephens wrote an editorial with Planetizen refuting Stein's argument that urban planners are not to blame for gentrification.

However, the New Yorker just released Nikil Saval's The Plight of the Urban Planner in November, 2019, supporting the theory of urban planners being a critical component to drive gentrification and redemption may be ahead for urban planners in a reformed housing market.

• Do you think urban planners are to blame for the adverse impacts of gentrification, particularly the displacement of many low income and minority people in communities? ⠀

• Is zoning used as a tool to catalyze gentrification? ⠀

• Should the adverse impacts of gentrification be blamed on other professionals and politicians? ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
  What are your thoughts? ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
  

Diamniadio Lake City, Senegal

Last year, in an attempt to revitalize Senegal's economy, the Senegalese government contracted Semer Group to design and construct Diamniadio Lake City (DLC). ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
The new city is expected to resolve the congestion in Dakar, which is less than 20 miles away and house an approximate 350,000 people.
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DLC will have commercial, financial and residential land uses with a price tag of USD $2 billion.
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With phase one already underway, construction is set to be completed in 2035. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Will the urban decentralization efforts in Senegal be a success or a bust?
Also, is @Akon working on another city in Senegal? 🤔
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Information, graphics and video courtesy of G-Pulse.com⠀⠀⠀

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Urban Planning in HBO's Hit T.V Series "Insecure"

It has been a while since the season finale of Insecure aired and while we are sad to see the ladies go, we are excited to see them talk about Urban Planning.

Gentrification

Gentrification is the process of renovating and improving a house or district so that it conforms to middle-class taste. While season 3 was all about Issa finding herself, this season highlighted the silent gentrification of Issa’s beloved neighborhood. Throughout the season, Issa mentions her discomfort with the change of the neighborhood. She felt that the people of the neighborhood shouldn’t have to leave their homes to enjoy themselves. Issa was referring to the contemporary and ubiquitous problem of lack of resources in an inner-city neighborhood. 

There was a moment in the show where Issa had to move out because she could not afford the rent. She was sleeping on peoples couches just to get by. Then as Issa is walking through her old neighborhood, she gets offered a voucher for a free coffee from a new café.  The writers then show you that most of the business on the block is for sale. Issa is then told that the block is being turned into a promenade, which is why Issa’s rent went up.

Walkability and Neighborhood Touring

At one point in the season, Issa takes her love interest, Nathan for a tour around Issa’s neighborhood. Issa was determined to dispel the stereotype that L.A is not "walkable" enough to enjoy. While walking, Issa shows Nathan her favorite spots and reminisces about what the neighborhood used to have. This tour has sparked the idea that there is much to value right in our own neighborhoods. She decides to throw a party for the neighborhood.

Block Party

While Issa starts planning, she was met with the roadblocks. She was unaware of the hurdles that she would have to overcome for her party to be successful. Issa was under the impression that getting a permit was going to be a piece of cake. She walked into the permit office and the city-employee informed her that one permit does not cover all permits and that an event just doesn’t happen that fast; permits are submitted months even years in advance.

“We Got Yall”

Issa's occupation throughout the three seasons is in the realm of urban planning. She works as a Positive Youth Development Coordinator with a non-profit called "We Got Y'all". Although the name of the non-profit profits off African-Americans vernacular English, they serve predominately Black and Latino kids in low-income areas of Los Angeles. The writers constantly remind us of the overall theme of management being predominately white and almost always miss the mark on understanding the kids that they serve.

In season 1, we see Issa being praised by her white colleagues for planning and coordinating a successful field trip for kids to experience the beach. Even though the entire western boundary of California borders the Pacific Ocean, Issa explains to her team;  many of these kids have never experienced the beach. Again, this goes back to the theme about there being so many places, including landmarks, cultural centers, and natural resources that remain inaccessible for low-income minorities right in their own city. It was good to see Issa helping close that gap for the kids she serves.

Insecure shares light on almost every single topic that affects the Black community, hence why it is so authentic and relatable for many. It is interesting to see how the producers engaged in urban planning elements in the show through community development, positive youth development, and neighborhood tours. More importantly, the theme of Issa's compassion to help the people in her neighborhood and the problems she faces just alone makes it worthy to follow. 

The Developing City - Lagos, Nigeria: A Case for a Stronger Master Plan

Photo by Muhammadtaha Ibrahim from Unsplash

In 2017, a BBC report, A City That Won’t Stop Growing highlighted the seemingly endless population growth of Lagos, Nigeria. By 2050 Nigeria is projected to have twice the population it has today, more than half will live in cities, and about 60% of them will be under 25. If we do not intervene to solve the issues that overcrowding may cause, Lagos will be the 3rd largest city in the world with the least infrastructure than any other large cities of the world. 

Lagos, Nigeria has the potential to be an economic hub not only for Western Africa and the rest of the continent, but of the world - reaching ranks such as Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, Paris and London.

My Limitations

What is preventing Lagos, Nigeria from greater socio-economic prosperity? First, I would admit that I have yet to take a trip to Lagos. However, my fascination with the world’s largest Black Urban area continues to peak my interest. I have limited knowledge on the city and I am researching the wealth disparity and how it is trickled down throughout society. Although, Lagos Is big in the technology, film, art and culture scene, the city’s global presence is very limited. I am on a quest to find out what is limited the city from establishing a foothold on the global stage.  Is it internal conflicts such as overcrowding, corruption and terrorism, i.e Boko Haram, or is it external forces such as global disinvestment that is keeping the city stagnant? In this two part blog series, I hope to raise awareness of this issue, explore greater solutions and understand the dynamics of urban planning in Africa, particularly Lagos, Nigeria.

Background: History Repeating Itself

Remember the saying “History repeats itself.” Many cities in developing countries are now experiencing similar dilemmas cities in the developed world had to overcome in the 18th to early 20th century. Overcrowding in many developing cities is synonymous with inadequate housing, inadequate infrastructure and inadequate transportation facilities. This issue contributes to low quality of life and slows economic growth. So what can developing cities, such as Lagos, Nigeria do to curb some of these issues and launch them onto the field of global competition with great eastern and western cities?

Western Cities and their Master Plans

For starters, these four cities have one thing that considers them amazing places to live work and play. Each of these cities has developed some sort of ambitious master plan. For the case of Paris, it has underwent a physical renovation period lead by Georges-Eugène Haussmann to modernize the city for generations to come and has inspired other cities to prepare physical plans and has launched the City Beautiful movement in America.

What is a Master Plan?

So what is a master plan? A master plan is a policy framework, in the form of a comprehensive document that envisions the physical, social and economic capacity of a city well into the future. Washington D.C’s physical master plan with its famous lattice grid, circle and squares was designed by the French engineer and planner Pierre L'enfant. The father of city planning, Daniel Burnham is considered the contributor of Chicago well planned city streets in the City’s Plan of 1909. New York City's Commissioners are known to have developed Manhattan’s famously strict and rigid grid in their 1811 plan.

Nowadays, much credit is given to city’s Master Plans for designating land uses and acting as a regulatory document to plan future development.  In most developed cities great parks, bars, restaurants, apartments, houses, entertainment centers and government institutions can be contributed to a comprehensive master plan.

The Need for Stronger Master Plans in Africa’s Developing Cities

On the contrary, many large cities in developing countries, particularly in Africa, seem to have weak master plans, mostly with western planning ideologies that do not seem to provide a detailed account of how their city should look and grow into the future, in regards to their economies, housing affordability and availability and public infrastructure. For example, there is a stereotype that Africa’s cities are not economic growth hubs, when in fact they are located in some of the fastest growing countries in the world. Their master plans/economic plans should reflect their economic potential to lure investors.

I took the opportunity to compare two of the continent’s city master plans: Kigali, Rwanda and Lagos, Nigeria. I created a hypothetical scenario where I have placed myself in the position of an expanding technology-based company level 1 associate in the marketing and development unit, where I was tasked to research which would be the next regional headquarters in Africa.   

According to this New York Times article, after 20 years of the horrific genocide, Kigali, Rwanda is emerging as a proud capitol city, known for its progressive start-ups, energetic art scene and great dining and coffee. A notable Singapore architecture and planning firm recently created an award winning master plan for their city which focused on sustainable transportation and housing.

Kigali’s Master Plan:

·         The plan is realistic and Spans from 2013-2040 (27 years)

·         The plan is colorful with graphs and has a clear vision

·         The plan is easily available on the government’s planning website

·         Transparent free trade zone and economic hubs within the city

·         Ambitious for a city its size

·         Focuses on decentralized nodes

·         A clear implementation plan

Lagos’ metropolitan area holds one of the world’s largest populations but bears many of its burdens from overcrowding including inadequate housing and transportation infrastructure. The government is starting to grasp the benefits of investing in the city’s technology sector. Many notable technology companies are beginning to look at city’s large general population and workforce as an asset for high supply and demand. However, the City’s Master Plan does not reflect the government’s effort in making Lagos a smart city for the future to lure investors.

Lagos State Development Plan

·         Not that many graphics, reads more like an essay, not engaging to its audience,.

·         The plan is less realistic and Spans from 2012 to 2025 (13 years)

·         The plan is not so easily available on the ministry of economic planning and budget website

·         Not transparent

·         Not very ambitious for a mega city

·         Suppose to focus on tech hubs and smart city initiatives but doesn’t have any technology related information.

·         Spelling errors

·         No clear implementation plan

The current development plan for Lagos is weak. It needs an ambitious comprehensive development/master plan backed by all levels of government to catapult the mega city into the future.

Recommendations

1.       Facilitate a global competition to attract well-known architecture and planning firms and companies to create an ambitious physical master plan framework.

2.       Release a RFP for global architecture and planning firms to BID on a contract to create an actual comprehensive document.

3.       Create an extensive public engagement process with workshops and charrettes.

4.       Create a more realistic timeline for planning and implementation.

5.       Engage in marketing for public support, stakeholders and investors.

If I was an investor, I would look towards investing or visiting Kigali based on its plan. Western nations have developed strong physical or master plans for their cities to thrive centuries into the future. It is time that developing cities on the African continent do the same but with the intentions to resolve problems with their own standards and metrics. Part 2 of this blog series will explore African Planning principles and how they can apply to the future development of Lagos, Nigeria.

I would like to hear your thoughts on this topic. Do you think Lagos has the potential to overcome its socio-economic issues related to poverty, overcrowding, slum housing and inadequate transportation to join the ranks as Tokyo, London and New York? If so, what are your recommendations?

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