Byron Nicholas 3/28/20 Byron Nicholas 3/28/20

Planning for a Pandemic

As we are facing an unprecedented pandemic in our lifetime, we are already learning a lot from other countries’ experiences. For one, a national plan of action is absolutely critical. Countries with strong centralized leadership to make life-altering decisions and allocate resources are proving themselves worthy of the challenge.

Regions all over the world are experiencing massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions due to national government mandated stay-at-home and lock-down orders as traffic congestion is massively reduced.

Photo by Cheng Feng from Unsplash — Photo by Cheng Feng from *Unsplash*

In a matter of a week our lives have turned completely upside down. Parents are working from home as offices are closed. Students are home-schooled as schools were mandated to close. Small businesses deemed non-essential are forced to close by state governments. Bars, lounges and clubs are indefinitely banned and while most restaurants are closed, some are only open to delivery orders. By mid-March, the U.S unemployment rate has skyrocketed, with nearly 3.5 million Americans without jobs. Governments all over the world have closed borders. Most cities throughout the world conducted a deep cleaning campaign, disinfecting public places and transit systems, while media campaigns promote #socialdistance #stayathome and #washyourhands. What appears to be a storyline from the movie Contagion, or Hulu’s A Handmaid’s Tale, AMC’s the Walking Dead, or even the Resident Evil trilogy, has become a stark reality for billions of people on the planet experiencing a lock-down amid a pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus.

COVID-19, also known as coronavirus, originated from a wet-market in Wuhan, China. The virus is one of many that were caused by animal to human contamination, due to unsanitary practices. Scientists claim the virus is a highly contagious and deadly “novel” or new corona-virus strand with an average lethality of 3.5%. Some countries, like Spain and Italy, are experiencing a more severe fatality rate of 4%. Meanwhile, the average flu kills on average 0.1% of the people it infects. Lead virologists, epidemiologists and immunologists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, who served as the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) and contributed to a wide range of research on the HIV/AIDS epidemic, helped develop a set of national guidelines that would help mitigate the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. According to experts, the virus spreads through contaminated cough and sneeze water droplets. Symptoms vary from mild to severe “flu-like” symptoms, and may include chest pains, fever and pneumonia. It is determined that people with compromised immune systems have a far greater fatality rate. Some coronavirus test-positive victims also experienced loss of smell and taste while others show gastro-intestinal symptoms.

Although there are viruses with greater fatality rates, this virus appears to be infecting those who can afford to travel, initially causing infection rate disparities among socio-economic groups. According to a report, Dr, Kinda, who specializes in humanitarian missions and emergency response in Africa, notes “since the virus affects mostly people who travel by air, it is not the poorest people, but people who have access to information and know how to report symptoms. It would have taken longer to respond to a disease that appeared in a very poor or inaccessible area.” Community spread cases are caused when a person who recently traveled by air and infect someone in their community who has not recently traveled, accelerating the rate of infection.

Planning Prospective: What we are Learning from COVID-19?

We are learning how policy, economics and planning either influences or is influenced by social behavior in real-time. Ride-hailing services such as Lyft was forced to change their prime business model of passenger ride-share to food delivery. Meanwhile grocery delivery start ups and Amazon are looking to hire tens of thousands of workers as people turn to e-commerce for delivery services.

Prior to Governor Cuomo’s total work-from-home quarantine mandate, bike-share giant, Citibike, seen a surge in trips to more than half a million users in a week, with 517,800 trips between March 1 and March 11, 2020, compared to 310,100 trips during the same period one year earlier. At this time, fear of the virus dictated travel patterns where we’ve seen commuters avoid New York’s subway system, as they were afraid to contract the virus.

“For example, Rwanda installed public hand-washing sinks (before the country’s first confirmed case), created education programs on how to effectively wash your hands, and implemented car-free streets to promote pedestrian social distancing.”

Wildlife in Vienna, Italy are returning as the city’s canals are void of pollution. But at the same time, medical supplies are low and medical professionals are out-supplied. Many nations in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Caribbean are scrambling to haphazardly contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile some nations such as Rwanda and South Korea have taken preventative measures to fight the virus. For example, Rwanda installed public hand-washing sinks (before the country’s first confirmed case), created education programs on how to effectively wash your hands, and implemented car-free streets to promote pedestrian social distancing.

Educational Program in Kigali, Rwanda to Teach Pedestrians How to Effectively Wash Their Hands

Disaster Planning should Include Pandemics

The future of planning is constantly shaped by the problems we currently face. Although there are many historical references to support this claim, Superstorm Sandy is the most recent and relevant example. After Superstorm Sandy devastated the New York/New Jersey metropolitan area, subsequent hurricanes affected various cities throughout the United States and its overseas territories. This forced a reactionary wave of planning curricula, urban policies, plans and guidelines to shift its attention towards resiliency planning and planning for the next Superstorm Sandy. Planners in the workforce, as public officials and private consultants, helped create a wide range of policies to reduce the effect of climate change or mitigate natural disasters on cities and its inhabitants. Natural disasters from hurricanes can cost a local economy billions of dollars, while experts expect a global pandemic of this nature can lead the world into a global depression - surpassing the unemployment rates of the 2008 recession caused by the subprime loan housing crisis. The United States Congressional chambers just passed an unprecedented $2 trillion relief package, in which Majority Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi mentioned is the first of a few to combat a looming recession catalyzed by COVID-19.

Planning for a Pandemic

The future of planning post COVID-19 may be quite interesting. Planning professionals and public health experts need to collaborate more often than before.This pandemic should push planning professionals to develop educational workshops led by public health experts and economists to inform the rest of us how to effectively plan for a pandemic. The aftermath of COVID-19 should compel accredited schools to introduce a range of academic curricula on a broad range of topics from preventive and mitigation measures under the umbrella of “planning for a pandemic”. Under this new planning topic, GIS specialists should help gather information on community resources that are useful tools to combat the pandemic. For example, large convention centers in New York and New Orleans are currently being used as makeshift hospitals as existing hospitals are currently overwhelmed.

Mapping Technology Can Determine Community Resources to help Combat the Virus and Locate Community Spread Cases.

During this pandemic, much of our workforce is at home. Therefore, a plan for non-essential workers to work-from-home should be developed so planning departments can effectively operate business-as-usual while practicing social distance. This would often be a part of an agency’s strategic plan. The strategic plan should also list what policy changes are necessary for local governments to permit virtual public meetings and other “business-as-usual” meetings such as planning boards and zoning boards.

Working from home should urge transit planners to develop plans that would effectively reduce transit service without compromising social distancing rules. Planners and economists should conduct research and influence policy to mitigate economic impacts on local transit service caused by reduced ridership and revenue. Planners should also look at ways micro-mobility may fill those transit service gaps.

In addition, regional coordination is key. For the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut tri-state region, this meant constant communication among the governors to implement effective state-wide quarantine orders or lock-downs. Plans for vulnerable populations such as people experiencing homelessness and people who are incarcerated should be in place to help curve the spread of the virus within these population groups.

History has shown that pandemics do not occur as frequently as natural disasters, but their fatality rates can have devastating impacts. After the SARS epidemic, scientists have warned that pandemics are not an “if it will happen” event, but a “when will it happen” event. As this article was written in the midst of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) global pandemic, we are still learning which practices can help stop the spread as we attempt to live ordinary lives. I will continue to document and report best planning practices and case studies throughout the duration of the pandemic. It is the least I can do as I keep a safe distance and celebrate the hard work our health professionals, store clerks, law enforcement officers, and other essential workers are doing in the front lines.

Byron Nicholas 11/23/19 Byron Nicholas 11/23/19

Diamniadio Lake City, Senegal

Last year, in an attempt to revitalize Senegal's economy, the Senegalese government contracted Semer Group to design and construct Diamniadio Lake City (DLC). ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
The new city is expected to resolve the congestion in Dakar, which is less than 20 miles away and house an approximate 350,000 people.
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DLC will have commercial, financial and residential land uses with a price tag of USD $2 billion.
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With phase one already underway, construction is set to be completed in 2035. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Will the urban decentralization efforts in Senegal be a success or a bust?
Also, is @Akon working on another city in Senegal? 🤔
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Information, graphics and video courtesy of G-Pulse.com⠀⠀⠀

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Byron Nicholas 7/26/18 Byron Nicholas 7/26/18

The Developing City - Lagos, Nigeria: A Case for a Stronger Master Plan

Photo by Muhammadtaha Ibrahim from Unsplash — Photo by Muhammadtaha Ibrahim from *Unsplash*

In 2017, a BBC report, A City That Won’t Stop Growing highlighted the seemingly endless population growth of Lagos, Nigeria. By 2050 Nigeria is projected to have twice the population it has today, more than half will live in cities, and about 60% of them will be under 25. If we do not intervene to solve the issues that overcrowding may cause, Lagos will be the 3rd largest city in the world with the least infrastructure than any other large cities of the world.

Lagos, Nigeria has the potential to be an economic hub not only for Western Africa and the rest of the continent, but of the world - reaching ranks such as Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, Paris and London.

My Limitations

What is preventing Lagos, Nigeria from greater socio-economic prosperity? First, I would admit that I have yet to take a trip to Lagos. However, my fascination with the world’s largest Black Urban area continues to peak my interest. I have limited knowledge on the city and I am researching the wealth disparity and how it is trickled down throughout society. Although, Lagos Is big in the technology, film, art and culture scene, the city’s global presence is very limited. I am on a quest to find out what is limited the city from establishing a foothold on the global stage. Is it internal conflicts such as overcrowding, corruption and terrorism, i.e Boko Haram, or is it external forces such as global disinvestment that is keeping the city stagnant? In this two part blog series, I hope to raise awareness of this issue, explore greater solutions and understand the dynamics of urban planning in Africa, particularly Lagos, Nigeria.

Background: History Repeating Itself

Remember the saying “History repeats itself.” Many cities in developing countries are now experiencing similar dilemmas cities in the developed world had to overcome in the 18th to early 20th century. Overcrowding in many developing cities is synonymous with inadequate housing, inadequate infrastructure and inadequate transportation facilities. This issue contributes to low quality of life and slows economic growth. So what can developing cities, such as Lagos, Nigeria do to curb some of these issues and launch them onto the field of global competition with great eastern and western cities?

Western Cities and their Master Plans

For starters, these four cities have one thing that considers them amazing places to live work and play. Each of these cities has developed some sort of ambitious master plan. For the case of Paris, it has underwent a physical renovation period lead by Georges-Eugène Haussmann to modernize the city for generations to come and has inspired other cities to prepare physical plans and has launched the City Beautiful movement in America.

What is a Master Plan?

So what is a master plan? A master plan is a policy framework, in the form of a comprehensive document that envisions the physical, social and economic capacity of a city well into the future. Washington D.C’s physical master plan with its famous lattice grid, circle and squares was designed by the French engineer and planner Pierre L'enfant. The father of city planning, Daniel Burnham is considered the contributor of Chicago well planned city streets in the City’s Plan of 1909. New York City's Commissioners are known to have developed Manhattan’s famously strict and rigid grid in their 1811 plan.

Nowadays, much credit is given to city’s Master Plans for designating land uses and acting as a regulatory document to plan future development. In most developed cities great parks, bars, restaurants, apartments, houses, entertainment centers and government institutions can be contributed to a comprehensive master plan.

The Need for Stronger Master Plans in Africa’s Developing Cities

On the contrary, many large cities in developing countries, particularly in Africa, seem to have weak master plans, mostly with western planning ideologies that do not seem to provide a detailed account of how their city should look and grow into the future, in regards to their economies, housing affordability and availability and public infrastructure. For example, there is a stereotype that Africa’s cities are not economic growth hubs, when in fact they are located in some of the fastest growing countries in the world. Their master plans/economic plans should reflect their economic potential to lure investors.

I took the opportunity to compare two of the continent’s city master plans: Kigali, Rwanda and Lagos, Nigeria. I created a hypothetical scenario where I have placed myself in the position of an expanding technology-based company level 1 associate in the marketing and development unit, where I was tasked to research which would be the next regional headquarters in Africa.

According to this New York Times article, after 20 years of the horrific genocide, Kigali, Rwanda is emerging as a proud capitol city, known for its progressive start-ups, energetic art scene and great dining and coffee. A notable Singapore architecture and planning firm recently created an award winning master plan for their city which focused on sustainable transportation and housing.

Kigali’s Master Plan:

· The plan is realistic and Spans from 2013-2040 (27 years)

· The plan is colorful with graphs and has a clear vision

· The plan is easily available on the government’s planning website

· Transparent free trade zone and economic hubs within the city

· Ambitious for a city its size

· Focuses on decentralized nodes

· A clear implementation plan

Lagos’ metropolitan area holds one of the world’s largest populations but bears many of its burdens from overcrowding including inadequate housing and transportation infrastructure. The government is starting to grasp the benefits of investing in the city’s technology sector. Many notable technology companies are beginning to look at city’s large general population and workforce as an asset for high supply and demand. However, the City’s Master Plan does not reflect the government’s effort in making Lagos a smart city for the future to lure investors.

Lagos State Development Plan

· Not that many graphics, reads more like an essay, not engaging to its audience,.

· The plan is less realistic and Spans from 2012 to 2025 (13 years)

· The plan is not so easily available on the ministry of economic planning and budget website

· Not transparent

· Not very ambitious for a mega city

· Suppose to focus on tech hubs and smart city initiatives but doesn’t have any technology related information.

· Spelling errors

· No clear implementation plan

The current development plan for Lagos is weak. It needs an ambitious comprehensive development/master plan backed by all levels of government to catapult the mega city into the future.

Recommendations

1. Facilitate a global competition to attract well-known architecture and planning firms and companies to create an ambitious physical master plan framework.

2. Release a RFP for global architecture and planning firms to BID on a contract to create an actual comprehensive document.

3. Create an extensive public engagement process with workshops and charrettes.

4. Create a more realistic timeline for planning and implementation.

5. Engage in marketing for public support, stakeholders and investors.

If I was an investor, I would look towards investing or visiting Kigali based on its plan. Western nations have developed strong physical or master plans for their cities to thrive centuries into the future. It is time that developing cities on the African continent do the same but with the intentions to resolve problems with their own standards and metrics. Part 2 of this blog series will explore African Planning principles and how they can apply to the future development of Lagos, Nigeria.

I would like to hear your thoughts on this topic. Do you think Lagos has the potential to overcome its socio-economic issues related to poverty, overcrowding, slum housing and inadequate transportation to join the ranks as Tokyo, London and New York? If so, what are your recommendations?

Byron Nicholas 6/27/18 Byron Nicholas 6/27/18

Afrofuturism “Wakanda”: Urban Utopias and Dsytopias

Afrofuturism is a term loosely defined to recognize a fairly new artistry and ideology. In the book, Afrofuturuism: the World of Black Sci-Fi and Fantasy Culture, by Ytasha Womack art curator and afrofuturist Ingrid LaFleur explains, Afrofuturism is an intersection of imagination, technology, the future, and liberation… it is a way of imagining possible futures through a Black cultural lens”. Usually cityscapes are depicted as backdrops in afrofuturistic worlds with the main focus on humanized characters. Let us take a look at how afrofuturism can plan a big role in transforming African and African American physical urban spaces that may inevitably improve people’s quality of life.

Afrofuturism: African Urban Dystopia

Often times throughout western country’s film and art, African cities are portrayed as places of destitute, dystopian, over-crowded, and war-torn with outdated mid-20th century infrastructure, In Olalekan Jeyifous’s afrofuturism artwork, the cityscape is the main focus. Vice I-D has profiled Jeyifous’ cultural background, education and artistry, and it is nothing less than inspiring. Nigerian-born, Cornell University graduate and Brooklyn-based artist and designer, Jeyifous “makes work that imagines what the future of Nigeria could become.” He explains on his website, vigilism.com, what his latest project and my favorite exhibition of his, Shanty Megastructures, is all about. He explains “it is a visual conversation on how slums are frequently viewed as unsightly eyesores to be bull-dozed leaving their inhabitants completely displaced… and through a somewhat Dystopian vision, it speaks to the fact that these communities often suffer from a lack of appropriate sanitation, electricity, medical services and modern communication”. In this exhibition we see how the slums of Lagos, Nigeria is transformed into, what seems to be a “Do-It-Yourself’ urban planning and design approach. What stands out in Jeyifous’s Shanty Megastructures artwork is the idea of coalescing water and flora based elements to add life in what is often deemed a hopeless setting.

Afrofuturism: African Urban Utopia

Wakanda in Black Panther should inspire urban spaces in Africa and bring attention to Black urban spaces in America. As an afrofuturist and urbanist, I zealously awaited scenes depicting Wakanda’s urban context. Considering the ficticious people of Wakanda are known to be advanced people, it only made sense to imagine a city-state utopia planned and created by African people incorporating vernacular African architecture, engineering and other uniquely African elements. Similar to Jeyifous’ Shanty Megastructure exhibit, the visualization of Wakanda showcased a unique union between the people, land, water and plants. However, the buildings in Wakanda greatly differed from those in Shanty Megastructure. Scenes depicting the cityscape in Black Panther showed almost all the buildings throughout Wakanda as modern with an African architectural style. For example, the pyramid, a prominent structural shape throughout the African continent in which is noticeable from Egypt to Sudan and Mali, the dome hut, a symbol of African vernacular architecture, and cylindrical buildings were all represented in Wakanda’s ultra-modern building designs. There was no better way to celebrate what are truly African architecture elements.

Additionally, Wakanda has a distinctive African identity whose success comes from the harvesting of vibranium, a fictitious natural resource that powers their technology. It’s almost as if all African nations consolidated to harvest, utilize and export the continent’s natural resources of gold, petroleum, bauxite and uranium to create a technologically advanced country in which the wealth is distributed to its people.

Afrofuturism and Realism: Some Aspects of Black Utopias or Wakanda Already Exists

Africa has the fastest growing economies in the world. Angola's economy is growing faster than Portugal, no wonder why there are Portuguese moving into the country (source)

Can African cities skip a western style industrial revolution and propel into a new economy. For example, according to a CNN report, Cote d'ivore is expected to be Africa's fastest growing economy in 2018, however, almost half of the country's population remains in poverty and without electricity. During the industrial revolution, western countries produced electricity through fossil fuel energy sources. Can this be an opportunity for Cote D'ivoire's largest city, Abidjan, to omit the fossil fuel supply and use renewable energy such as solar and wind to harvest electricity?

African American neighborhoods in America

At the end of Black Panther, the focus has shifted from futurism to present day in the American urban environment.

Western societal norms dominate every part of American culture. For some predominately Black neighborhoods new opportunities continue to arise to form unique urban spaces from transportation to agriculture and housing. Through the lens of Afrofuturism which exhibits hope and inspiration, we can combat the dilemmas associated with poverty, inadequate housing and facilities, transportation and climate change. Do you think the ideologies of Afro-futurism can be used as a tool to resolve problems in black communities and spaces? Or do you think it is a movement that will dissipate over time?